ADVBITCOIN

Altcoin Trading: Investing In Cryptocoins

Learn to trade and invest in Bitcoin, Litecoin, Ethereum, Monero, Zcash and other altcoins. Use the sidebar links below for altcoin trading resources.
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BlitzPredict

Second layer solutions for prediction markets.
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BitStar - [BITS]

Bitstar is a fast transaction currency with low transaction fees. We are dedicated to helping the mentelity foundation. Bitstar is a core coin of the superNET network. We are here for the long run. The coin had a six week Proof of Work (PoW) phase, and has transitioned to full Proof of Stake (PoS).
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@cz_binance: RT @binance: We’re giving away $2,500 of #Bitcoin to winners in 24 hours time! 🔥 2 will win $1,000 in #BTC each! 💰 5 that retweet will also get $100 in BTC each! For the chance to win $1,000: 🔸 Use credit or debit card to buy $100+ of any crypto 🔸 Comment your transaction ID 🔸 Retweet

@cz_binance: RT @binance: We’re giving away $2,500 of #Bitcoin to winners in 24 hours time! 🔥 2 will win $1,000 in #BTC each! 💰 5 that retweet will also get $100 in BTC each! For the chance to win $1,000: 🔸 Use credit or debit card to buy $100+ of any crypto 🔸 Comment your transaction ID 🔸 Retweet submitted by rulesforrebels to BinanceTrading [link] [comments]

@binance: RT @binance: We’re giving away $2,500 of #Bitcoin to winners in 24 hours time! 🔥 2 will win $1,000 in #BTC each! 💰 5 that retweet will also get $100 in BTC each! For the chance to win $1,000: 🔸 Use credit or debit card to buy $100+ of any crypto 🔸 Comment your transaction ID 🔸 Retweet

@binance: RT @binance: We’re giving away $2,500 of #Bitcoin to winners in 24 hours time! 🔥 2 will win $1,000 in #BTC each! 💰 5 that retweet will also get $100 in BTC each! For the chance to win $1,000: 🔸 Use credit or debit card to buy $100+ of any crypto 🔸 Comment your transaction ID 🔸 Retweet submitted by rulesforrebels to BinanceTrading [link] [comments]

@binance: RT @binance: We’re giving away $2,500 of #Bitcoin to winners in 24 hours time! 🔥 2 will win $1,000 in #BTC each! 💰 5 that retweet will also get $100 in BTC each! For the chance to win $1,000: 🔸 Use credit or debit card to buy $100+ of any crypto 🔸 Comment your transaction ID 🔸 Retweet

@binance: RT @binance: We’re giving away $2,500 of #Bitcoin to winners in 24 hours time! 🔥 2 will win $1,000 in #BTC each! 💰 5 that retweet will also get $100 in BTC each! For the chance to win $1,000: 🔸 Use credit or debit card to buy $100+ of any crypto 🔸 Comment your transaction ID 🔸 Retweet submitted by rulesforrebels to BinanceTrading [link] [comments]

@binance: We’re giving away $2,500 of #Bitcoin to winners in 24 hours time! 🔥 2 will win $1,000 in #BTC each! 💰 5 that retweet will also get $100 in BTC each! For the chance to win $1,000: 🔸 Use credit or debit card to buy $100+ of any crypto 🔸 Comment your transaction ID 🔸 Retweet

@binance: We’re giving away $2,500 of #Bitcoin to winners in 24 hours time! 🔥 2 will win $1,000 in #BTC each! 💰 5 that retweet will also get $100 in BTC each! For the chance to win $1,000: 🔸 Use credit or debit card to buy $100+ of any crypto 🔸 Comment your transaction ID 🔸 Retweet submitted by rulesforrebels to BinanceTrading [link] [comments]

@binance: We’re giving away $2,500 of #Bitcoin to winners in 24 hours time! 🔥 2 will win $1,000 in #BTC each! 💰 5 that retweet will also get $100 in BTC each! For the chance to win $1,000: 🔸 Use credit or debit card to buy $100+ of any crypto 🔸 Comment your transaction ID 🔸 Retweet

@binance: We’re giving away $2,500 of #Bitcoin to winners in 24 hours time! 🔥 2 will win $1,000 in #BTC each! 💰 5 that retweet will also get $100 in BTC each! For the chance to win $1,000: 🔸 Use credit or debit card to buy $100+ of any crypto 🔸 Comment your transaction ID 🔸 Retweet submitted by rulesforrebels to BinanceTrading [link] [comments]

@binance: We’re giving away $2,500 of #Bitcoin to winners in 24 hours time! 🔥 2 will win $1,000 in #BTC each! 💰 5 that retweet will also get $100 in BTC each! For the chance to win $1,000: 🔸 Use credit or debit card to buy $100+ of any crypto 🔸 Comment your transaction ID 🔸 Retweet

@binance: We’re giving away $2,500 of #Bitcoin to winners in 24 hours time! 🔥 2 will win $1,000 in #BTC each! 💰 5 that retweet will also get $100 in BTC each! For the chance to win $1,000: 🔸 Use credit or debit card to buy $100+ of any crypto 🔸 Comment your transaction ID 🔸 Retweet submitted by rulesforrebels to BinanceTrading [link] [comments]

@cz_binance: RT @binance: We’re giving away $2,500 of #Bitcoin to winners in 24 hours time! 🔥 2 will win $1,000 in #BTC each! 💰 5 that retweet will also get $100 in BTC each! For the chance to win $1,000: 🔸 Use credit or debit card to buy $100+ of any crypto 🔸 Comment your transaction ID 🔸 Retweet

@cz_binance: RT @binance: We’re giving away $2,500 of #Bitcoin to winners in 24 hours time! 🔥 2 will win $1,000 in #BTC each! 💰 5 that retweet will also get $100 in BTC each! For the chance to win $1,000: 🔸 Use credit or debit card to buy $100+ of any crypto 🔸 Comment your transaction ID 🔸 Retweet submitted by rulesforrebels to BinanceTrading [link] [comments]

@binance: RT @binance: We’re giving away $2,500 of #Bitcoin to winners in 24 hours time! 🔥 2 will win $1,000 in #BTC each! 💰 5 that retweet will also get $100 in BTC each! For the chance to win $1,000: 🔸 Use credit or debit card to buy $100+ of any crypto 🔸 Comment your transaction ID 🔸 Retweet

@binance: RT @binance: We’re giving away $2,500 of #Bitcoin to winners in 24 hours time! 🔥 2 will win $1,000 in #BTC each! 💰 5 that retweet will also get $100 in BTC each! For the chance to win $1,000: 🔸 Use credit or debit card to buy $100+ of any crypto 🔸 Comment your transaction ID 🔸 Retweet submitted by rulesforrebels to BinanceTrading [link] [comments]

@cz_binance: RT @binance: We’re giving away $2,500 of #Bitcoin to winners in 24 hours time! 🔥 2 will win $1,000 in #BTC each! 💰 5 that retweet will also get $100 in BTC each! For the chance to win $1,000: 🔸 Use credit or debit card to buy $100+ of any crypto 🔸 Comment your transaction ID 🔸 Retweet

@cz_binance: RT @binance: We’re giving away $2,500 of #Bitcoin to winners in 24 hours time! 🔥 2 will win $1,000 in #BTC each! 💰 5 that retweet will also get $100 in BTC each! For the chance to win $1,000: 🔸 Use credit or debit card to buy $100+ of any crypto 🔸 Comment your transaction ID 🔸 Retweet submitted by rulesforrebels to BinanceTrading [link] [comments]

06-14 01:24 - 'New York Driver License Template PSD Adobe Photoshop full version (Mac & Win), No date and no number limit in download, Standard and real size (for print) High-quality Template, Easy to customize (layer...' (tgtal.com) by /u/tgMemberOfficial removed from /r/Bitcoin within 1-11min

New York Driver License Template PSD Adobe Photoshop full version (Mac & Win), No date and no number limit in download, Standard and real size (for print) High-quality Template, Easy to customize (layer categorized) Full Layer based, Signature fonts, official
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01-24 21:53 - 'Follow my journey to earn 1,000USD/day Step by step. Newbie welcome! Advice MUCH appreciated!' (youtu.be) by /u/win_bitcoin removed from /r/Bitcoin within 0-4min

Follow my journey to earn 1,000USD/day Step by step. Newbie welcome! Advice MUCH appreciated!
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Author: win_bitcoin
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I bought $1k of the Top 10 Cryptos on January 1st, 2020 (Sept Update)

I bought $1k of the Top 10 Cryptos on January 1st, 2020 (Sept Update)

EXPERIMENT - Tracking Top 10 Cryptos of 2020 - Month Nine - UP +56%
See the full blog post with all the tables here.
tl;dr
  • I thought I'd mix it up and start with the 2020 Top Ten first this month.
  • Rough month, but still way up in 2020, and still way ahead of the stock market.
  • I purchased $100 of each of Top Ten Cryptos in Jan. 2020, haven't sold or traded. Did the same in 2018 and 2019. Learn more about the history and rules of the Experiments here.
  • Sept - down month for 2020 Top Ten, except for BNB, which crushed it (+25%)
  • Overall since Jan. 2020 - ETH in the lead (+187%), BNB in distant second place. 100% of 2020 Top Ten are in positive territory and have a combined ROI of +56% vs. +5% of the S&P
  • Combining all three three years, Top Ten cryptos underperforming S&P if I'd taken a similar approach.

Month Nine – UP 56%

2020 Top Ten Overview
After a rough start to the month, most of crypto had a Wake Me Up When September Ends moment. For the 2020 Top Ten Portfolio, it was bad, but could have been (as has been) much worse: it was the best performing of the Top Ten “Index Fund” Experiments in September and at least one of the cryptos (BNB up +25%) had a great month.

Question of the month:

In September, this decentralized exchange (DEX) overtook Coinbase in trading volume:

A) UniswapB) AaveC) CompoundD) Both A and B
Scroll down for the answer.

Ranking and September Winners and Losers

2020 Top 10 Rank
Lots of movement this month: six out of the Top Ten changed positions in September. BCH climbed one from #6 to #5 and BNB made a big move from #10 to #6. Going the opposite direction were BSV, EOS, and Tezos, dropping one, two, and four places respectively.
The big story though, at least for anyone who’s been watching crypto for a while, was the ejection of Litecoin from the Top Ten. In just 30 days, LTC fell five places from #7 to #12. For some context, Litecoin’s absence from the Top Ten is a Top Ten Experiment first. It is also the first time since CoinMarketCap has tracked crypto rankings that Litecoin has not has not held a spot in the Top Ten.
Drop outs: after nine months of the experiment, 30% of the cryptos that started 2020 in the Top Ten have dropped out. LTC, EOS, and Tezos have been replaced by ADA, LINK, and most recently, DOT.
September Winners – Winner, singular: BNB was the only crypto to finish in the green, finished up +25% for the month, and gained four places in the rankings. A very good month for Binance Coin.
September LosersTezos was the worst performing crypto of the 2020 Top Ten portfolio, losing nearly a third of its value, down -31% for the month. LTC also had a bad month, losing -24% and dropping out of the Top Ten.
Since COVID-19 has hammered the sporting world, let’s be overly competitive and pit these cryptos against each other, shall we? Here’s a table showing which cryptos have the most monthly wins and losses nine months into the 2020 Top Ten Crypto Index Fund Experiment:

Wins/Losses
ETH is in the lead three monthly Ws, followed by Tether and Tezos with two wins each. Even though it is up +79% since January 1st, 2020, BSV has the most monthly losses: it has been the worst performing crypto of the group four out of the first nine months in 2020.

Overall update – ETH maintains strong lead, followed by BNB. 100% of Top Ten are in positive territory.

Ethereum remains firmly in the lead, up +187% on the year. Thanks to a strong month for BNB and a weak month for Tezos, Binance Coin has overtaken XTZ for second place, and is now up +109% in 2020.
Discounting Tether (no offense Big-T), EOS (+4%) is the worst performing cryptocurrency of the 2020 Top Ten Portfolio. 100% of the cryptos in this group are in positive territory.

Total Market Cap for the cryptocurrency sector:

The overall crypto market lost about $35B in September, ending the month up +85% since the beginning of this year’s experiment in January 2020. Despite a rough month, this is the second highest month-end level since the 2020 Top Ten Experiment started nine months ago.

Bitcoin dominance:


Monthly BitDom - 2020
BitDom ticked up slightly this month, but is still lower than it has been for most of the year. As always, a low BitDom reflects a greater appetite for altcoins. For context, the BitDom range since the beginning of the experiment in January 2020 has been roughly between 57% and 68%.

Overall return on investment since January 1st, 2020:

After an initial $1000 investment on January 1st, the 2020 Top Ten Portfolio is now worth $1,536, up +56%. This is the best performing of the three Top Ten Crypto Index Fund Portfolios, but not by much: the 2019 Top Ten came in at +54% in September.
Here’s the month by month ROI of the 2020 Top Ten Experiment, hopefully helpful to maintain perspective and provide an overview as we go along:
Monthly ROI - 2020 Top Ten
Even during the zombie apocalypse blip in March, the 2020 Top Ten has managed to end every month so far in the green (for a mirror image, check out the all red table you’ll find in the 2018 experiment). The range of monthly ROI for the 2020 Top Ten has been between a low of +7% in March and high of +83% in August.
So, how does the 2020 Top Ten Experiment compare to the parallel projects?
Taken together, here’s the bottom bottom bottom line for the three portfolios:
After a $3000 investment in the 2018, 2019, and 2020 Top Ten Cryptocurrencies, the combined portfolios are worth $‭3,340‬ ($238+ $1,538 +$1,564).
That’s up about +11% for the three combined portfolios, compared to +31% last month.
Here’s a table to help visualize the progress of the combined portfolios:
Combined ROI - UP +11%
That’s a +11% gain by buying $1k of the cryptos that happened to be in the Top Ten on January 1st, 2018, 2019, and 2020.
But what if I’d gone all in on only one Top Ten crypto for the past three years? While many have come and gone over the life of the experiment, five cryptos have started in Top Ten for all three years: BTC, ETH, XRP, BCH, and LTC (Big L, no pressure, but if you don’t claw yourself back in the Top Ten by January 2021, you’re out of the club). Let’s take a look:

Three Year Club
At this point in the Experiments, Ethereum (+104%) would have easily returned the most, followed by BTC (+77%). On the other hand, following this approach with XRP, I would have been down nearly a third at -31%.
So that’s the Top Ten Crypto Index Fund Experiments snapshot. Let’s take a look at how traditional markets are doing.

Comparison to S&P 500

I’m also tracking the S&P 500 as part of my experiment to have a comparison point to traditional markets. The S&P slipped a bit from an all time high in August and is now up just +5% in 2020.
Over the same time period, the 2020 Top Ten Crypto Portfolio is returning about +56%. The initial $1k investment in crypto is now worth about $1,563. That same $1k I put into crypto in January 2020 would be worth $1050 had it been redirected to the S&P 500 instead. That’s a $513 difference on a $1k investment, one of the largest gaps in favor of crypto all year.
But that’s just 2020. What about in the longer term? What if I invested in the S&P 500 the same way I did during the first three years of the Top Ten Crypto Index Fund Experiments? What I like to call the world’s slowest dollar cost averaging method? Here are the figures:
  • $1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2018 = $1260 today
  • $1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2019 = $1350 today
  • $1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2020 = $1050 today
So, taken together, here’s the bottom bottom bottom line for a similar approach with the S&P:
After three $1,000 investments into an S&P 500 index fund in January 2018, 2019, and 2020, my portfolio would be worth $3,660.
That $3,660 is up +22% since January 2018, compared to a +11% gain of the combined Top Ten Crypto Experiment Portfolios over the same period of time.
That’s an 11% swing in favor of the S&P 500 and breaks a two month mini-streak of wins from the Top Ten crypto portfolios.
For those keeping track or unable to see the table above: that’s seven monthly victories for the S&P vs. two monthly victories for crypto. The largest gap so far was a 22% difference in favor of the S&P back in June.

Conclusion:

September saw losses for both traditional and crypto markets, but crypto got hit harder. What can we expect for the rest of 2020? The Neverending Year is entering the final quarter and is not finished with us yet: a lot can and will happen in the remaining months. More volatility is no doubt to come as we enter the final stretch of a truly unpredictable and exhausting year. Buckle up.
Stay healthy and take care of yourselves out there.
Thanks for reading and for supporting the experiment. I hope you’ve found it helpful. I continue to be committed to seeing this process through and reporting along the way. Feel free to reach out with any questions and stay tuned for progress reports. Keep an eye out for the original 2018 Top Ten Crypto Index Fund Experiment and the 2019 Top Ten Experiment follow up experiment.

And the Answer is…

A) Uniswap
As part of the DeFi/DEX wave, in late August/early September, Uniswap surpassed Coinbase in trading volume.
submitted by Joe-M-4 to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

[Guide] How to make money in EFT

EDIT : Thanks to everybody for pointing out the few mistakes/improvements that can be made in this new-player level guide.
For the sake of summarizing here :
- Intel documents are NOT worth 250k. I didn't check them on the flea before writing this and for some reason I always remembered them at 250k. Game is in maintenance so I can't check the real price. That being said, it's still profitable to craft USB into Intel, it's just not x2 profitable.
- Scav case : moonshine / intel docs, some people seem to say they've never been profitable. I personally *did not* measure those, I eyeballed it. I'm working on so much shit that I didn't bother. On average I think that I'm in a net positive, but it's as believable as people saying they're not : without proof we can't really say for sure. That bein said, it's certainly more profitable to run lower-tier scav runs that are *faster* when you're online, and to run a moonshine or intel when you log off. It's more efficient to get a lot of runs while you can re-start them every time.
- Crafting moonshine : It's not profitable to spam it ; I was under the assumption that the average player who will read this will usually not play for 4-5 hours straight and will end up collecting yesterday's moonshine, craft a new one, and that's it. If that's you're rythm then yes, spam it. If you intend to play more than one craft worth's of time, then you will craft moonshine faster than you can spend it, and it's not really worth to sell it on the flea except to up your market reputation for a small loss (about 10k). So in short : craft moonshine to be able to start a moonshine run for when you log off, but you don't *need* more than that.

Check this out

Here is some actual data on the lavatory !!

Hey everybody !

I know it can be a struggle to get a stable economy in this game, especially when you die a lot. Today I'm gonna try and give a few guidelines on how to make money safely, efficiently, fast, or in any other way we can think of.
If you're struggling to stay above the 15-20 million rouble treshold, this guide is definitely for you.
Very often I'll hear newer players say "Damn I can't seem to make money, I keep loosing. Every time I take gear I die instantly". There is some truth in that. Today I'll help you improve your survival rate, but most importantly I'll unbalance the other side of the equation. When you complain about losing a lot of money, I will help you spend less by a significant margin, as well as earn more. You'll also get rid of gear fera naturally.
Remember this throughout this very, very long read : It all depends on how you want to play, and how much. Some of these tips will not fit how you want to play the game, and like Nikita always says : this game is supposed to be fun before anything else.

1. Hideout

Safety Score : 100%
Reward : Moderate but very stable.
Maxing your hideout should be one of your top priorities, probably before telling your mom how much you love her every now and then. If you're not doing either of those, the big gamer in you knows what to do.
Early wipe, save your fuel for when you're online and playing. If you're playing, your generator should definitely be running and all your stations should be crafting something.
Once you have Medstation 1, Workbench 1 and Lavatory 2, you really have no reason to turn your generator off when you're playing.
Once you have the bitcoin farm, you should never turn off the generator.
Medstation :
Craft salewas and/or IFAKs permanently. They cost 8k and sell for 15k. That's a net profit of about 25k / hour for salewas, as well as never having to buy any.
Lavatory :
Always be crafting Bleach. If you have 2 empty blue fuel, use those empty cans to craft a Magazine case.
You can then keep the magazine cases until you've enough for your liking and sell those for a good profit.
The bleach you will use to buy the 6B47 helmets which are better than the SSh-68 helmets. Buying from 2x bleach barter at ragman level 1 means you get the helmet for 18k (instead of 33k on the market). This helmet has better head coverage, less slow/negative effects, less weight, has a slot for a mount, has +11 ergonomics AND is cheaper than the 22k SSh-68. That being said, it has a slight noise reduction that the Ssh does not have. If you wear headphones I'd say this is negligible but debatable. I prefer to have the extra protection and ergonomics for sure, considering it's slightly cheaper.

You can also barter for that helmet and instantly sell it back for a profit (five times) and level up ragman money requirements.
Bleach can also be traded for the Blackjack backpack at level 4, as well as the TTV rig at level 2. You should definitely do it.
Sell excess bleach on the flea market when the prices are around 10.5k or more. (around midnight Central European Time).
Workbench :
You can buy Power Cords and craft Wires forever and always make a profit. Buy in the morning and sell in the evening for better profits (CET timezone). For even more profit, you can craft gunpowders and ammo which tend to also be ridiculously pricy at night.
Buying grenades from Peacekeeper and crafting green (Eagle) gunpowder is a good way to make a lot of money and level up Peacekeeper.
Intel Center :
You main objective is to get this one to level 3 for reduced fees and better quest rewards, but also access to the bitcoin farm at level 2.
If you need FiR for quests, craft that. When you're done craft Intel Documents at all times (buy the USB), and use it for scav case or sell for a x2 profit. ( 3x40 for USB = 120, documents sell for 250)
Bitcoin Farm :
Once you have it, spend all your money on GPU until its maxxed, then level it up even more. The BTC farm is definitely worth it. At 50GPU you need to connect every 15 hours to clic. If you can't, keep it level 2 and connect every 24 hours to clic. Even at level 1 its worth. But its much, much faster at higher levels.
From 0 to 50 GPUs it takes about 30 days to pay for itself. GPUs should not be sold until you maxxed it.
Water Collector :
Must be running at all times. Buy the components if you don't have them.
Booze Generator :
Must be running at all times. Buy the components if you don't have them.
Scav Case :
Always have it running on moonshine, and use intel documents once you're done crafting one.
Nutrition Unit :
It's not really worth crafting sugar to put in the Booze gen, as the price for chocolate is pretty much = the price of sugar. So buy the sugar instead and craft something else. I tend to craft Hot Rods when the prices are good (morning) and then use them to barter 5.45 BS Ammo with Prapor or sell for a profit.

If you do all that, you should have about 150k an hour fairly easily. Don't forget to check it between every raid.

2. Traders

Safety Score : 100%
Reward : Quite good.
Once your mom has received all the love she deserves and your hideout is taken care of, you should have max traders (traders are a requirement for most of the hideout anyway).
Traders level 4 will net you much better prices on most mods and open very good barter trades.
Buy as much as you can from barter trades. You can buy almost everything from it, and it's usually at least 25% cheaper to buy the requirements and then do the barter. Ragman4 has the CPC Armored Rig which is level 5 armor, you'll get it for about 200k instead of 250k on the flea. The Slick is also much cheaper. The Blackjack backpack is literally half priced.
You can also NOT use what you barter and just sell it back to a dealer (sometimes the same from which you bartered) for a profit as well as having 2 times the loyalty money increase (from bartering then from selling).
Another good example is buying a Recbat 14k from the market, getting an ADAR for skier, selling it to Mechanic and winning 8k just like that. You can find every single barter that nets a profit yourself and just buy-resell and you'll probably make another 100k every reset, if you really are struggling and have the patience. I personally advise to just use the equipment for yourself unless you're levelling traders, but I wouldn't go as far as buying all profitable items every reset.
Every trader at every level has good barters. You can make a full decent kit at level 1 traders for about 40k roubles on barter, instead of 90 if you buy it all. (Paca for masks, helmet for bleach, ADAR for recbatt, salewa from craft, backpack, etc. all barters)

Bleach is beautiful and is coveted in the real world for its ability to cure diseases.

3. Modding

Safety Score : 100%
Reward : Very profitable.
Don't mod out of your reach. Don't mod Meta. If money is an issue for you, having +1 ergo won't change your life.
For example,
Priced at 10k roubles
Priced at 45k Roubles

See where I'm going with this?
If you have money, sure, go for the Shift. If you wanna have fun and try, sure, go for it as well. But if you're struggling, buy 4 cobras and mod 4 guns for the price of 1% recoil which will not make you a gamer god anyway.
Also, do NOT buy mods from the flea market when you see you can buy them from traders. Look at the top of the market, if the mod is greyed out, look at the price. It means you don't have access (yet). If the price is too inflated for you, find another mod. There are always other mods. You can make 2 AKMs that have a difference of 2% recoil and 4 Ergonomics and have a 150k price difference. It's up to you. When money is the issue, this was the answer.

Note : Some guns are inherently much more expensive. Guns shooting 5.56 or 5.45 tend to be more expensive than 7.62. AKMs are VERY good budget guns. They're a bit harder to handle, but you can get a fully modded AK for 150-200k, where as you will have an entry level M4 for that price. 7.62 PS ammo is also incredibly cheap while being decent. Play 7.62 if you're struggling with money. It's not meta, but it's far more than enough, trust me. You'll rarely lose fights exclusively because you had PS ammo in an AKM. Rarely.

4. Statistical loadout balance

This is fairly simple yet overlooked a LOT. To be accurate, you need data. Personally I kept it in an excel spreadsheet, if you're hardcore you should do something similar.

A somewhat relevant spreadsheet I used a wipe ago to measure some of my stats
What you need to know about yourself for this :
These will help us measure how much you fuck up or not.
Lets make it simple.
If you have a 500k loadout and you usually extract with 100k, at 10% survival rate, that means you will spend 500k x 10 = 5.000.000 roubles over 10 raids on average, die 9 times, and earn 100k once. This very obvious example shows the loss.
Basically we're gonna try and balance that equation so that you never lose money on average. You'll have ups and downs obviously, but over a week or two, it'll smooth things out for you, like math always does in a pleasant conversation with a girl.

So what can you do to improve that equation ?

4.1 Improve survival rate

Seems simple enough, DIE LESS. You do not need to be good, smart, or special to die less. If you die a lot, do something different. If you die less, try more of that. Explore statistical advantages through different gameplay.
What can you do to die less practically? Here is a list of checkboxes you can tick depending on your money, skill, mood, or any other factor like the map and sheer luck:
Do all that, it'll give you a LOT of data to actually improve by just doing something different without really being fastestronger, just smarter.
And I repeat : you can do some of it, all of it, it depends on what you like, what you're comfortable with, and the time/investment you're putting in the game. It's okay to play at your own pace.

4.2 Reduce gear cost

The second part of our "profit equation" above is how much gear you take with you. Using previous tips, reduce that cost. Barters, cheaper mods, etc.

4.3 Increase extracted value

This one is not as tricky as it sounds. Basically there are two ways to extract with more money in the backpack :
The goal is to pay for the gear you will loose when you die while making a profit on top. That one time you extract if you have a MBSS backpack, you'll need items worth like 50k per slot to break even. If you take a tri-zip, suddenly it's only 30k per slot. If you take a blackjack and blackrock from good old ragman, suddenly it's 10k per slot. So you can break even by looting crickents and DVD players almost.
See where I'm going ? Always take a tri-zip or bigger unless you're doing something special. That way you can afford to loot shitty areas, take less risk, and survive more while having a little less value.
We'll cover that in a minute, but there are ways to loot high value items, moderate value and low value. Those have also different risk/reward.

All of those are also map specific. In woods I'll often go with a 6B3TM armored rig for 40k, no helmet, 20k headphones and a sniper rifle. Rest is pouched so does not count. That's less than 100k investment. All players tend to have low value gear so I never extract with a lot either so it balances out. But on Woods, my survival rate is 20% instead of my overall 40%. So I know it's not a map I can reliably make money on, because I measured that accurately over time. This example is very common and should make sense to you.
Same goes for interchange where I have more about 50% survival but will tend to go in with 600k worth of gear, but will also often extract with over 500k quite regularly. Different ratios, different values, different purposes.
You can measure your own data if you're willing to do so, or you can eyeball it. Eyeballing it is much faster but very inaccurate because you will tend to include emotions in the mix when you die. You'll remember losses ~2x more than your wins (that's somewhat scientifically proven), and if you're eyeballing your loadout you might think you have 600k but really you might have only 450k. I would advise to go hardcore and measure it all for price, initial loadout, losses and earnings, for each map.

5. Money runs

Now money runs are vast and numerous. All include different levels of risk and reward. It's up to you once again to find what you're willing to do for the time it takes, the fun it will give you and how much it will actually help you. You can always try them all for ~50 raids the sake of trying something different and see how your data is impacted. it doesn't have to be 50 in a row if you don't want to. As long as you keep track of it it can be over a whole wipe. You'd have your data ready for the next wipe :) Faster is better though.

5.1 Hatchling runs

Safety Score : 100%
Reward : Very Variable. Mentally exhausting.
Those are incredibly money efficient. You're investing a gear of 0 value, so whatever you extract with is 100% win, so you cannot possibly lose money that way. Is it fun? Is it rewarding? I don't care, to each is own. Statistcally speaking, hatchling runs are an efficient way to make money.
They do however require a little bit of knowledge, but not skill. You'll be much more efficient at doing these kind of runs if you know where to go, what to look for, and how to get there depending on your spawn. That being said, such knoweldge is easily found ; it's nothing complex, it just takes time to learn. Once again, depends on how much you're willing to invest (if not roubles, time).

5.2 Scav runs

Safety Score : 100%
Reward : Low-ish
Scav runs are also incredibly efficient for the same reason as hatchlings. Except those have a cooldown. Statisticall speaking I have noticed you should always run your scavs as fast as possible on the map where you extract both the fastest and most frequently.
The explanation is simple, lets make it simpler :
The scav is a button that makes you earn free money. When you press it the button becomes unpressable for some time, when you release the button you earn money (sometimes).
That means you want to release the button as often as possible. And for that, you need to release it as fast as possible. It's that simple. So make scavs incredibly fast. I'm talking "Run through" fast.
Unless you're looking for FiR items or doing something specific like annoying a streamer, you should literally run straight to the extract every single time, and loot what you have that doesn't make you go out of your way too much. Usually I suggest factory, go in, kill a random scav, loot it, get out.
Two weapons is at LEAST 50k, 100 if they have a scope. There you go. That's 100k every 20 minutes (or less with intel center). That's MUCH BETTER than going up to 150-200k but taking 30 minutes to extract, and taking more risk by spending more time in the map. Every second you're in someone can shoot. Nobody can shoot you in the hideout.
The exception to that rule is Scavs with a pilgrim which you can take on your favourite loot-run map, probably interchange or reserve. There you should just fill everything you can and extract once you're full, no matter what you have. 30 crickents and an extra gun is fine.

5.3 Stash runs

Safety Score : Very
Reward : Okay
Those are very very safe and can be done with a pistol and a backpack only. Very cheap, quite unchalleneged, for a moderate reward. Just go on a map that you like and run around and loot all stashes until you're full, then get out. You can vary the map/route depending on the traffic of players. Interchange and shoreline are good contenders for that.
It'll net you easy money. Not great money, but definitely safe.

5.4 Loot Runs

Safety Score : Moderate
Reward : Quite alright
Once you have better knowledge/skill you can start having a specific route in a specific map, depending on a specific spawn. So it'll take time to learn. Usually very similar than a hatchling run except this time you bring moderate gear and go for moderate loots. For example, instead of going for fast techlight, in-and-out interchange, you can decide "alright I'll loot 100% of Oli and the computers in the back", it'll take time, but it'll make good loot. More money than stashes, definitely will see scavs to kill, and most probably some more pvp. More risk. If you win that PvP you have even more loot as well. But overall good reward.
Loot runs need to be "scheduled" and thought of after several tries, so you know how much you can take per person depending on backpack size. For example you can't say "lets loot oli" if you have a 5-man with blackjacks, you'll all be empty. Adapt.

5.4 PvP

Safety Score : Insane
Reward : Unreliably moderate
This one is pretty obvious. Very risky, unpredictable rewards. Usually better than loot runs when you survive. I won't elaborate on this, because if you're reading this far you're probably struggling in PvP. And the rest of this guide already covers a fair bit.

6. Insurance

Safety Score : "Meh"
Reward : Very profitable.
Now this is very, very important. Always insure your gear. Always.
If you die you will get stuff back, pretty much for free. If you're really struggling people won't loot your "trash", so you WILL get it back.
If you play in a group it's very likely that people will hide your stuff too.
And most importantly : you can insurance fraud. This is the best way to balance the equation we talked about earlier. If you find a decent-ish gun, replace yours. You drop your initial investment by a significant margin, you will definitely get it back, and if you extract it's a flat profit. Weapons don't take inventory slot, so if you have two weapons that are not yours initially they will usually pay for your whole gear. I have quite often left my super-mega-modded HK just for an average M4 or other weapon that I can fight with, just so I can reduce my investment by 350k and up my reward by like 200k instantly. Replace your headphones all the time too, that's an easy -30+30k, same with helmets. even if it's a bit broken or slightly worse.
If you're struggling with money, try to leave every raid with at least 3-4 pars of your equipment that aren't yours initially.
But value the risk behind this. I won't leave my slick for a Paca at the third minute of a raid just to have that extra 28k. I won't leave my meta-modded HK for a naked mosin. But if it seems decent/doable, do it. It will pay off. Because even if you die, you still get your shit back, and gun is usually the most expensive part of the gear.

7. Final notes

It's all about balance. Find what works *for you* and try shit out. Really, try. You'll die, you'll learn, you'll adapt with data to back that up. I find it crazy that people will die and not try to learn from it. That's how you will improve as a player.
First you gotta get smarter, then you'll get better. And with time, skill, mechanics, gamesense, all that will improve on the side. Earning more will snowball in your favour. And if you know you're statistically okay, you will have a much smaller gear fear and enjoy the game more.

Sorry for the wall of text, you guys should be used to it with me by now :D I made these guides in video but not in english, so here I am typing it all for you guys.
Enjoy :)
submitted by SixOneZil to EscapefromTarkov [link] [comments]

I bought $1k of the Top 10 Cryptos on January 1st, 2018 (Sept Update)

I bought $1k of the Top 10 Cryptos on January 1st, 2018 (Sept Update)
EXPERIMENT - Tracking Top 10 Cryptos of 2018 - Month 33 - Down -76%
See the full blog post with all the tables here.
tl;dr
  • First one to find the three hidden cultural references gets some moons.
  • What's this all about? I purchased $100 of each of Top Ten Cryptos in Jan. 2018, haven't sold or traded. Did the same in 2019 and 2020. Learn more about the history and rules of the Experiments here.
  • September - BTC, although -8%, outperforms the field this month.
  • Overall since Jan. 2018 - Bitcoin miles ahead of the pack, and only one close-ish to break even point.
  • Combining all three three years, Top Ten cryptos underperforming S&P if I'd taken a similar approach.

Month Thirty Three – Down 76%

2018 Top Ten Summary for September
After a rough start to September, crypto spent the month trying in vain to claw back ground. While a few coins rebounded quite a bit from the monthly lows, most ended up finishing the month significantly down. Out of the 2018 Top Ten group, Bitcoin lost the least, down -8% in September. NEM followed it’s winning August (yes, you read that right) with the poorest performance, down -26%.

Question of the month:

Which cryptocurrency exchange won approval to create America’s first crypto bank in September?

A) Binance B) Binance.us C) Kraken D) Coinbase
Scroll down for the answer.

Ranking and September Winners and Losers

Rank of 2018 Portfolio - 50% no longer in Top Ten
A lot of shuffling in September. On the upside, Bitcoin Cash and Cardano gained one place each landing at #5 and #10 respectively. Cardano gets special mention for re-entering the Top Ten.
Heading the wrong direction were IOTA, NEM, Dash, and Stellar each falling two or three spots.
The big story though, for long time crypto watchers, was the ejection of Litecoin from the Top Ten, down five places from #7 to #12 in just one month. For some context, Litecoin’s absence from the Top Ten is a Top Ten Experiment first. It is also the first time since CoinMarketCap has tracked crypto rankings that Litecoin has not been in the Top Ten.
Drop outs: After thirty-three months of this experiment 50% of the cryptos that started 2018 in the Top Ten have dropped out. NEM, Litecoin, Dash, IOTA, and Stellar have been replaced by Binance Coin, Tether, BSV, LINK, and most recently, DOT.
September Winners – Although it lost -8% of its value, this month’s W goes to Bitcoin. ADA gets second place, down -15% and climbing back into the Top Ten.
September Losers – As most probably expected after an extremely out of character victory last month, NEM came back down to earth in September, bigly, down -26%. Litecoin finished right behind, down -24% and dropping out of the Top Ten.
For the overly competitive, below is a tally of the winners of the first 33 months of the 2018 Top Ten Crypto Index Fund Experiment. Bitcoin still has the most monthly wins (8) and Cardano in second place with 6 monthly wins. With its poor September performance, NEM now has 7 monthly losses.
Ws and Ls - One clear winner
Every crypto has at least one monthly win and Bitcoin is unique as the only cryptocurrency that hasn’t lost a month yet since January 2018.

Overall update – BTC solidly in the lead, followed by ETH. Dash in the basement, LTC drops out of the Top Ten.

Even though BTC took a bit of a detour on its way back to break-even point, it is still far ahead of the field, down -17% since January 2018. The initial investment of $100 thirty-three months ago is now worth about $83. Second place Ethereum is down -49% over the same time period.
At this point in the 2018 Top Ten Experiment, Dash is at the bottom. It is currently worth $70.49, down from a January 1st, 2018 starting price of over $1,000. That’s a loss of -93%. The initial $100 invested in Dash 33 months ago is now worth $6.77.
The big story this month is LTC’s departure from the Top Ten, the first time since I started the experiment back in January 2018. Whether or not it will eventually fend off the new generation of coins remains to be seen, but it certainly is noteworthy to have one of the most well known and long standing cryptos drop out of the Top Ten. Consider pouring one out for Litecoin.

Total Market Cap for the entire cryptocurrency sector:

The crypto market lost over $35B in September and is down -39% since January 2018. The value of the overall crypto market is near where it was in August of this year, just a few months back. As painful as the beginning of the month was, looking at a table like this helps with perspective, especially if you’re panic prone.

Bitcoin dominance:

After steadily dipping for months, BitDom increased a bit in September, up to 57.5%.
For some context: since the beginning of the experiment, the range of Bitcoin dominance has been quite wide: we saw a high of 70% BitDom in September 2019 and a low of 33% BitDom in February 2018.

Overall return on $1,000 investment since January 1st, 2018:

The 2018 Top Ten Portfolio lost -$50 this month. If I cashed out today, the $1000 initial investment would return about $238, down -76% from January 2018.
September broke an encouraging upward trend, but at least the portfolio is taking a break from the -80% range. Here’s a look at the ROI over the life of the experiment, month by month, for some context:
33 Monthly ROIs on Top Ten since Jan 2018
The absolute bottom was -88% back in January 2019.
So the Top Ten Cryptos of 2018 are down -76%. What about the 2019 and 2020 Top Tens? Let’s take a look:
So overall? Taking the three portfolios together, here’s the bottom bottom bottom line:
After a $3000 investment in the 2018, 2019, and 2020 Top Ten Cryptocurrencies, my combined portfolios are worth $‭3,340‬ ($238+ $1,538 +$1,564).
That’s up about +11% for the three combined portfolios, compared to +31% last month.
Here’s a table to help visualize:
Combined ROI on $3k over 3 years - UP +11%
That’s a +11% gain by investing $1k on whichever cryptos happened to be in the Top Ten on January 1st for three straight years.
But surely you’d do better if you went all in on one crypto, right?
Depends on your choice. Let’s take a look:

ETH for the win
Only five cryptos have started in the Top Ten for all three years: BTC, ETH, XRP, BCH, and LTC (unless Litecoin can make a comeback by the 1st of Jan. 2021, it’s not going to make the four year club!). Knowing what we know now, which one would have been best to go all in on?
Ethereum, by a pretty good margin: the initial $3k would be up +104%, worth $6,118 today. The worst choice of a basket to put all your eggs in at this point in the experiment is XRP, down by almost one third.

Comparison to S&P 500:

I’m also tracking the S&P 500 as part of the experiment to have a comparison point with other popular investments options. The S&P 500 Index fell from an all time high in August, but is currently up +26% since January 2018.
S&P since Jan. 2018
The initial $1k investment into crypto on January 1st, 2018 would have been worth about $1260 had it been redirected to the S&P.
But what if I took the same invest-$1,000-on-January-1st-of-each-year approach with the S&P 500 that I’ve been documenting through the Top Ten Crypto Experiments? Here are the numbers:
  • $1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2018 = $1260 today
  • $1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2019 = $1350 today
  • $1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2020 = $1050 today
Taken together, here’s the bottom bottom bottom line for a similar approach with the S&P:
After three $1,000 investments into an S&P 500 index fund in January 2018, 2019, and 2020, my portfolio would be worth $3,660.
That is up +22% since January 2018, compared to a +11% gain of the combined Top Ten Crypto Experiment Portfolios.
That’s an 11% swing in favor of the S&P 500 and breaks a two month mini-streak of wins from the Top Ten crypto portfolios.
S&P vs. Top Ten Crypto Experiments
That’s seven monthly victories for the S&P vs. two monthly victories for crypto. The largest gap so far was a 22% difference in favor of the S&P in June.

Conclusion:

September was a tough month for both traditional and crypto markets. What’s next for the rest of 2020? More volatility is no doubt to come as we enter the last quarter of a truly unpredictable and exhausting year. Buckle up.
Thanks for reading and for supporting the experiment. I hope you’ve found it helpful. I continue to be committed to seeing this process through and reporting along the way. Feel free to reach out with any questions and stay tuned for progress reports. Keep an eye out for my parallel projects where I repeat the experiment twice, purchasing another $1000 ($100 each) of two new sets of Top Ten cryptos as of January 1st, 2019 then again on January 1st, 2020.

And the Answer is…

C) Kraken
According to an official announcement in September, Kraken is “the first digital asset company in U.S. history to receive a bank charter recognized under federal and state law.”
submitted by Joe-M-4 to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

What r/fatFIRE can learn from the book, Psychology of Money

My favorite author, Morgan Housel, released his new book, The Psychology of Money, last week. In the book, Housel discussed many interesting psychological phenomenon, through the lens of finance. As I flipped through the pages, I started to realize so much of what's happening in fatFIRE are examples of what's discussed in the book.
No One's Crazy
The book begins with how your personal experiences with money make up maybe 0.000000001% of what's happened in the world, but maybe 80% of how you think the world works.
For example, if you were born in 1970, the S&P 500 increased almost 10-fold, adjusted for inflation, during your teens and 20s. That's an amazing return. If you were born in 1950, the market went literally nowhere in your teens and 20s adjusted for inflation. Two groups of people, separated by chance of their birth year, go through life with a completely different view on how the stock market works.
Takeaways for fatFIRE:
When you read other posts and comments about what stocks to buy, what startups to join, what's the economy going to be like, what's the best asset allocation, etc., remember that is just a single person's point of view. That person may be from a different generation, earns different incomes, upholds different values, keeps different jobs, and has different degrees of luck.
And remember, don't be mean to others. A view about money that one group of people thinks is outrageous can make perfect sense to another.
Luck & Risk
The next chapter discusses the big role luck and risk plays in someone's life. Luck and risk are two sides of the same coin.
Examples from the book: Countless fortunes (and mistakes) owe their outcomes to leverage. The best (and worst) managers drive their employees as hard as they can. "The customers are always right" and "customers don't know what they want" are both accepted business wisdom. The line between "inspiringly bold" and "foolishly reckless" can be a millimeter thick and only visible with hindsight. Risk and luck are doppelgängers.
Takeaways for fatFIRE:
Be careful who you praise and admire. That commenter who joined a unicorn at Series A may look like a genius on the outside, but they may just be lucky and cannot repeat it again.
Be careful who you look down upon and wish to avoid becoming. That poster who joined WeWork may look like a fool, but they made the best decision based on the information they had at a time. They took a risk and got unlucky.
Therefore, focus less on specific individuals and case studies and more on broad patterns.
Furthermore, when things are going extremely well, realize it's not as good as you think -- like the stock market right now.
On the other hand, we should forgive ourselves and leave room for understanding when judging failures -- like the stock market in March.
Never Enough
The hardest financial skill is getting the goalpost to stop moving. It gets dangerous when the taste of having more -- more money, more power, more prestige -- increases ambition faster than satisfaction.
Social comparison is the problem here. A rookie baseball players who earns $500k a year envies Mike Trout who has a 12-year, $430 million contract envies a hedge fund manager who makes $340 million a year envies Warren Buffett who had a $3.5 billion increase in fortune in 2018.
There are many things never worth risking, no matter the potential gain. Reputation is invaluable. Freedom and independence are invaluable. Friends and family are invaluable. Being loved by those who you want to love you is invaluable. Happiness is invaluable. And your best shot at keeping these things is knowing when it's time to stop taking risks that might harm them. Knowing when you have enough.
Takeaways for fatFIRE:
When you make a big gain, it's totally okay to take profit, as long as you keep your ambition down and acknowledge the possibility that it may go higher. If that happens, no need to play the would've should've could've game, because it very well might've gone the other way.
When you see someone who got 20x return on Shopify or bet big into Ethereum in 2016, remember they may envy the pre-IPO employees at Shopify or the genius who held Bitcoin since 2010.
At the end of the day, do not risk more than what's comfortable in your life for the sake of making huge amount of money, because even if you do make it, you may not find it worth it.
Tails, You Win
Skipping a few chapters to talk about the prominence of tail events.
At the Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting in 2013 Warren Buffet said he's owned 400 to 500 stocks during his life and made most of his money on 10 of them. Charlie Munger followed up: "If you remove just a few of Berkshire's top investments, its long-term track record is pretty average."
In 2018, Amazon drove 6% of the S&P 500's returns. And Amazon's growth is almost entirely due to Prime and Amazon Web Services, which itself are tail events in a company that has experimented with hundreds of products, from the Fire Phone to travel agencies.
Apple was responsible for almost 7% of the index's returns in 2018. And it is driven overwhelmingly by the iPhone, which in the world of tech products is as tail--y as tails get.
And who's working at these companies? Google's hiring acceptance rate if 0.2%. Facebook's is 0.1%. Apple's is about 2%. So the people working on these tail projects that drive tail returns have tail careers.
Takeaways for fatFIRE:
When we pay special attention to a role model's successes we overlook that their gains came from a small percent of their actions. That makes our own failures, losses, and setbacks feel like we're doing something wrong.
When you accept that tails drive everything is business, investing and finance you will realize that it's normal for lots of things to go wrong, break, fail and fall. If you are a good stock picker you'll be right maybe half the time. If you're a good business leader maybe half of your product and strategy ideas will work. If you're a good investor most years will be just OK, and plenty will be bad. If you're a good worker you'll find the right company in the right field after several attempts and trials. And that's if you're good.
Freedom
The highest form of wealth is the ability to wake up every morning and say "I can do whatever I want today." The ability to do what you want, when you want, with who you want, for as long as you want, is priceless. It is the highest dividend money pays.
Research has shown having a strong sense of controlling one's life is a more dependable predictor of positive feelings of wellbeing than any of the objective conditions of life we have considered.
People like to feel like they're in control -- in the drivers' seat. When we try to get them to do something, they feel disempowered. Rather than feeling like they made the choice, they feel like we made it for them. So they say no or do something else, even when they might have originally been happy to go along.
Takeaways for fatFIRE:
Most of you probably are working thought-based and decision job, your tool is your head, which never leaves you. You might be thinking about your project during your commute, as you're making dinner, while you put your kids to sleep, and when you wake up stressed at three in the morning. You might be on the clock for fewer hours than you would in 1050. But it feels like you're working 24/7.
If this feels like you, and you do not like it, it is totally fine to switch to a job that pays less but gives you more freedom and independence, because freedom and independence are what FatFire is all about.
---
I'm only half way into the book, but I can tell this will be one of the best finance book of 2020. If you guys find this useful, happy to come back next week with more insights once I've gotten to the end. I like talking about these things on Twitter too.
Edit: here's part 2 and here's a Twitter thread of the best snippets
submitted by uDontLifeForBeSad to fatFIRE [link] [comments]

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submitted by Threw_it_to_ground to beermoney [link] [comments]

Why Amaury's stunt is clever, why it's a potentially recurring problem, and what can be done about it

TLDR: this isn't an Amaury problem, it's an incentive problem. If BCH splits and the ABC token retains even some residual value, then we're likely to see future "IFP splits" in other tokens and possibly BCH again.
Here's my take on The Amaury Situation.
I think he wants to get out of dealing with BCH and leading the ABC team. I think he's over it. I think he wants to go do something different.
He could quit and walk away. But why do that, when he could create a perpetual income stream for himself as well?
"Dead" coins hold value
A lot of people here seem to think the ABC split will be worthless. I disagree. It will have significant value:
Let's assume ABC is only worth $20. Even under this assumption, Amaury stands to get $10 every ten minutes in perpetuity - for doing absolutely nothing. That's $60/hr. (x 24 hours, or $1440/day) in mail money. That's a decent wage - a perpetual income stream (annuity) - with literally no work required.
But I think $20 is super low. Tokens strangely hold value long after the token appears dead. For example LTC is still worth about $50 - and that's AFTER it's champion announced it was a dead project and all the devs left (and LTC is much less scarce than BCH). FFS even BSV is worth $150 and the entire cryptosphere agrees its a scamtoken run by a con artist.
If LTC and BSV can do it, so can ABC. I predict ABC token will hold significant value.
If the ABC token can hold $50/coin, then Amaury looks to collect $150/hr. (x24 hrs - $3600/day). If it can hold $100/coin, then Amaury gets $300/hr (x24 hrs - ie $7200/day).
But even if it drops to $10/token, he still gets $720 every day.
For doing nothing.
Why is this a problem
This is a serious problem with our incentives. If he succeeds, Amaury will have piloted a repeatable exit-scam recipe for any reference implementation.
"Tired of supporting your halfass token and ragtag devs? Here's an easy escape hatch! Just create a version that pays you a nice annuity, let the token split, and retire with your annuity."
That's the problem. Amaury doesn't have to keep the ticker. He just has to successfully split the token into two tradeable tokens, and he wins his annuity.
What can be done
I'm not sure. I want Amaury to lose here. I want him to get zero annuity. I want to send a clear signal to the next Amaury that splitting the token in order to collect your annuity is a losing strategy.
But I can't see how to accomplish this.
One way would be to attack his chain through reorgs. But there is no direct incentive for miners to do this. And I don't support the notion that "bitcoin works because miners attack chains they don't support."
Another would be to try to drive the value of his token to zero. But that's basically impossible. I think it will be very hard to drive the value of his token even to $20. And at even $20 he gets a nice little annuity. Not a get rich quick scheme by any stretch, but still, it'll pay for a nice mortgage. I know I wouldn't turn down the chance to get an extra grand per day of mail money. So even at $20/token, Amaury will have demonstrated that his easy retirement plan will work. We need $2/token if we want to declare his strategy an unqualified failure. We can't.
And the problem here is that if/when BCHN (or anyone else) becomes the reference client, then its leaders will have the exact same incentive to cause a split when they're tired of managing the project and want out.
Conclusion
Amaury has surfaced a possible gaping vulnerability in the incentive system which creates a perverse incentive to continually create "IFP" type splits. This vulnerability exists in all bitcoin-like tokens. Unless we can find a way to completely block Amaury from his expected revenue stream, he will be setting a precedence that we can expect to see repeated on other tokens and possibly even on BCH again one day.
Edit: I wanted to point out that dskloet has reminded us there is a third option, and that is that instead of allowing Amaury to split the coin, we can soft-fork ABC in such a way that ABC considers the blocks to be valid, but the IFP funds are unusable. The obvious way to do this (as dskloet pointed out) is to blacklist the IFP address. But blacklisting has its own consequences. Another way to do this might be to do something like make the coins sent to that address "unmovable" so that ABC clients will see the blocks paying to IFP and therefore valid, but he can't spend the money.
Edit: to clarify
What's the difference between blacklisting and making the coins unmovable? Isn't that exactly what blacklisting is?
Blacklisting means not accepting transactions from address X.
I propose instead sending "fake coins" to address X. Like putting slugs into a coin-op machine. The machine owner can still try to spend the slugs, but nobody will take them. But the machine owner can still spend any valid tokens spent in the machine.
submitted by jessquit to btc [link] [comments]

I bought $1k of the Top 10 Cryptos on January 1st, 2019 (Sept Update)

I bought $1k of the Top 10 Cryptos on January 1st, 2019 (Sept Update)

EXPERIMENT - Tracking Top 10 Cryptos of 2019 - Month Nine - UP +54%
See the full blog post with all the tables here.
tl;dr
  • I like moons, I like music. I also like burying musical references in crypto reports. First one to name the two musical references gets some moons.
  • Remember the panic in early Sept? Despite a tough month, the 2019 Top Ten are +54% and still well ahead of the stock market.
  • What's this all about? I purchased $100 of each of Top Ten Cryptos in Jan. 2019, haven't sold or traded. Did the same in 2018 and 2020. Learn more about the history and rules of the Experiments here.
  • September - all cryptos in the red, so I guess Tether wins the month.
  • Overall since Jan. 2019 - ETH loses lead to BTC which is +189%. Only 2 out of the Top Ten in negative territory.
  • Combining all three three years, Top Ten cryptos underperforming S&P if I'd taken a similar approach.

Month Twenty One – UP 54%

2019 Top Ten Summary for September
Although crypto recovered a bit from an early September dive, the 2019 Top Ten Portfolio ended the month completely in the red, similar to what we saw in June. Litecoin dropped out of the Top Ten this month, the first time since these Experiments began.

Question of the month:

In September, Tether moved 1 billion USDT coins from TRON to this blockchain:

A) Ethereum B) Neo C) Polkadot D) EOS
Scroll down for the answer.

Ranking and September Winners and Losers

2019 Top Ten Ranking
Here come the new coins: with the exception of BCH (up one place from #6 to #5) every crypto either remained in place or dropped. BSV, down one place, EOS and Tron down two, and Stellar fell three. Litecoin dropped a massive five places to land itself outside of the Top Ten, the first time since I began the Experiments back in January 2018.
Due to Litecoin’s expulsion from the Top Ten, 40% of the crypotos have dropped out of the Top Ten since January 1st, 2019: Tron, Stellar, Litecoin and EOS have been replaced by BNB, DOT, ADA, and LINK.
September Winners – With all cryptos in the red, stablecoin Tether outperformed the rest. BTC finished second, down -8% in September, followed by BSV, down -10%.
September LosersLTC had a truly horrible month, losing nearly a quarter of its value (-24%), falling five places in the ranking, and falling out of the Top Ten. Close behind was Stellar and ETH, down -23% and -22%.
For overly competitive nerds, here is a tally of which coins have the most monthly wins and losses during the first 21 months of the 2019 Top Ten Experiment:
2019 Ws and Ls
Depressingly, Tether is still far ahead with seven monthly victories, more than twice as much as second place BSV and ETH. And although BSV is up 87% since January 2019, it dominates the monthly loss count: it has now finished last in eight out of twenty-one months.
Swing trade anyone?
And XRP is still the only crypto that has yet to notch a win.

Overall update – BTC takes lead from ETH. Stellar now worst performing since Jan. 1st, 2019

After briefly pulling ahead of BTC last month, ETH gave up its overall lead in September. The top two are up +189% and +169% respectively followed distantly by BSV, up +87% since January 2019. The initial $100 investment in BTC is currently worth $295.
Twenty-one months into the 2019 Top Ten Index Fund Experiment, 80% of the 2019 Top Ten cryptos are either flat or in the green. The other two cryptos are well in negative territory: last place Stellar (-33%) and second to last place XRP (-32%) have each lost about one third of their value since January 2019).
At +54%, the 2019 Top Ten Portfolio is just behind the 2020 Top Ten Portfolio’s +56% gain and both are far, far ahead of the 2018 group (much more on that below).

Total Market Cap for the entire cryptocurrency sector:

Monthly total market cap, since Jan 2019
Since January 2019, the total market cap for crypto is up +176%. The overall market fell around $35B in September, ending the month around $351B. Despite the tough month, this is the second highest month-end level since the 2019 Top Ten Experiment started 21 months ago.

Bitcoin dominance:

BitDom ticked up slightly this month, but is trending lower than the last year or so, where it had remained in the mid-60s%. As always, a low BitDom signals a greater appetite for altcoins. Zooming out, the BitDom range since the beginning of the experiment in January 2019 has been between 50%-70%.

Overall return on investment since January 1st, 2019:

The 2019 Top Ten Portfolio lost nearly $300 in September. After the initial $1000 investment, the 2019 Top Ten Crypto Portfolio is worth $1,538. That’s up about +54%.
Here’s a look at the ROI over the life of the first 21 months of the 2019 Top Ten Index Fund experiment, month by month:
Monthly ROI on Top Ten since Jan 2019
Unlike the completely red table you’ll see in the 2018 Top Ten Experiment, the 2019 crypto table is almost all green. The first month was the lowest point (-9%), and the highest point (+114%) was May 2019.
At +54%, the 2019 Top Ten Portfolio is now the second best performing out of the three but just barely (the 2020 Top Ten is up +56%).
Speaking of the other Experiments, let’s take a look at how the 2019 Top Ten Index Fund Portfolio compare to the parallel projects:
Taking the three portfolios together, here’s the bottom bottom bottom line:
After a $3000 investment in the 2018, 2019, and 2020 Top Ten Cryptocurrencies, my combined portfolios are worth $‭3,340‬ ($238+ $1,538 +$1,564).
That’s up about +11% for the three combined portfolios, compared to +31% last month.
Lost in the numbers? Here’s a table to help visualize the progress of the combined portfolios:
Combined ROI on $3k over 3 years - UP +11%
To sum up: 11% gain by dropping $1k once a year on whichever cryptos happened to be in the Top Ten on January 1st, 2018, 2019, and 2020.
But what if I’d gone all in on only one Top Ten crypto for the past three years? While many have come and gone over the life of the experiment, only five cryptos have started in Top Ten for all three years: BTC, ETH, XRP, BCH, and LTC (Litecoin, no pressure, but if you’re not back in the Top Ten in the next few months, you’re out of the club). Let’s take a look at those five:

ETH leading the three year club
Ethereum (+104%) would have returned the most at this point, followed by BTC (+77%). On the other hand, following this approach with XRP, I would have been down -31%.
Alright, that’s crypto. How does crypto compare to the stock market?

Comparison to S&P 500:

I’m also tracking the S&P 500 as part of the experiments to have a comparison point with traditional markets. Although the S&P fell from an all time high the month before, it is up +35% since January 2019.
The initial $1k investment I put into crypto 21 months ago would be worth $1,350 had it been redirected to the S&P 500 in January 2019. +35%, not bad at all. But the 2019 Top Ten Portfolio is up +54% over the same time period.
That’s 2019. But what if I took the same world’s-slowest-dollar-cost-averaging $1,000-per-year-on-January-1st crypto approach with the S&P 500? It would yield the following:
  • $1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2018 = $1260 today
  • $1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2019 = $1350 today
  • $1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2020 = $1050 today
Taken together, here’s the bottom bottom bottom line for a similar approach with the S&P:
After three $1,000 investments into an S&P 500 index fund in January 2018, 2019, and 2020, my portfolio would be worth $3,660.
That is up +22% since January 2018, compared to a +11% gain of the combined Top Ten Crypto Experiment Portfolios.
As you can see in the table below, that’s a 11% swing in favor of the S&P 500. September breaks a two month mini-streak of wins from the Top Ten crypto portfolios.
S&P takes the lead in Sept.

Conclusion:

After a strong August, both the stock and crypto markets fell in September. In a year that feels neverending, a lot can and will happen in the remaining months of 2020.
Be safe and take care of each other out there.
Thanks for reading and for supporting the experiment. I hope you’ve found it helpful. I continue to be committed to seeing this process through and reporting along the way. Feel free to reach out with any questions and stay tuned for progress reports. Keep an eye out for the original 2018 Top Ten Crypto Index Fund Experiment and the 2020 Top Ten Experiment.

And the Answer is…

A) Ethereum
In September, Tether moved 1 billion additional USDT coins (7% of its total supply) from TRON to the Ethereum blockchain.
submitted by Joe-M-4 to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

Out of the top 20 altcoins, 2/3 performed worse than BTC in the last 3 months

Not sure if this is of interest to anyone, but I thought I'd share. In August 2017 I started with crypto and got burned thinking I was a daytrader. Burned through sats, but didn't get entirely burned in fiat because I got in before the end of year madness. Since then I've just DCA'd occasionally into BTC and ETH, and kept a tiny bit of play money for trying swing trading on alts. For those that were around during these times, we all remember alts bleeding on BOTH the up and down volatility of bitcoin.
This experience made me pretty weary of alts, not just from trading, but from long term holding as projects died over the last couple years. Ultimately, everyone is hoping for a 1000x small-cap project, but the reality is that most projects have a peak and then fizzle and you have to be okay with that risk.
I picked an arbitrary timeline (3 months) to check out the performance of the top 20 alts against BTC measured in sats (ignoring DOT because it's too new):
Coin July 23 Oct 23 % Change
ETH 2784473 3205610 15.1%
XRP 2128 1993 -6.3%
BCH 2496236 2112486 -15.4%
LINK 83596 92551 10.7%
BNB 191825 238890 24.5%
LTC 472022 433333 -8.2%
ADA 1321 847 -35.9%
BSV 1922175 1309045 -31.9%
EOS 27876 20551 -26.3%
XMR 755395 962089 27.4%
CRO 1533 733 -52.2%
TRX 187 208 11.2%
XLM 1058 656 -38.0%
XTZ 32344 17197 -46.8%
NEO 121616 142202 16.9%
ATOM 42808 41763 -2.4%
XEM 524 864 64.9%
HT 45259 35083 -22.5%
IOTA 2962 2167 -26.8%
VET 187 94 -49.7%
Number of alts that gained value compared to holding BTC: 7
Average gain of positives: 24%
Number of alts that lost value compared to holding BTC: 13
Average loss of negatives: -27%
Average if you had invested evenly across top 20: -10%
For me, this has been my experience with alts. Long term holds of alts usually leads me to pain. I enjoy playing around trying to increase my sat stack with some spare cash, but in general am now sticking to BTC/ETH. Picking a winning project seems to be more luck than anything, as (in my opinion) it's more about short term hype, and most good projects STILL fade in sats as people lose interest in making a quick buck.
I totally understand that I picked an arbitrary date range, but it's just food for thought, and maybe some of you guys have some interesting perspectives on how you feel about alt trading.
submitted by Reostat to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

BetFury Monthly Report

BetFury Monthly Report

https://preview.redd.it/ibyzaxbvfnq51.png?width=1170&format=png&auto=webp&s=3b030e7e9f0051d035ca702d125293ad0dd8f8f3
Autumn is always the rainy season. BetFury's rains pour out winnings, dividends, events and cool updates.
If you've been with us the whole month, you probably know how many cool things happened at BetFury. If you have joined us recently you can be sure that we never sit still. The BetFury team is constantly working to make the platform as good and easy to use as possible. So that every Betfurian can enjoy the game and earn money!
Watch what peaks Fury has reached in September!

Dividends

The Dividend pool is pleasing in its size and stability. Dividends pool has increased by ~25 BTC this month.
https://preview.redd.it/4howyh9yfnq51.png?width=990&format=png&auto=webp&s=77c24c7f733eaa8be24352cd7512d6cdc33bb921
Dividends are paid steadily! And this is confirmed by the historic event at BetFury. For the first time the dividends Daily Payouts were over 2 BTC. ~56 BTC were paid out during this month.
https://preview.redd.it/6mp62sv0gnq51.png?width=1280&format=png&auto=webp&s=958c4e01ebc95a1e26a2ac200b38b51a0bcf38c5
The biggest BFG bonfire on BetFury - the jubilee 10th BFG Token burning!
https://preview.redd.it/ovgi97f3gnq51.png?width=1024&format=png&auto=webp&s=5882d74ec69a7fdffbf90e1fd2ed3a2c769704d2
The total amount of burned tokens from the 10th token burning session is 32 362 386 BFG:
  • Burned in Auction - 1 058 130 BFG 606 474 BFG(TRX) 451 656 BFG(BTC)
  • Burned in Gaming - 21 304 256 BFG 17 109 456 BFG(TRX) 194 800 BFG(BTC)
  • Burned from Team - 10 000 000 BFG 5 000 000 BFG(TRX) 5 000 000 BFG(BTC)

Mining Price was raised

You know how important it is to own BFG tokens because every month the price rises and the token becomes more expensive. So this month Mining Price growed up as usual. Mine more tokens now to then enjoy their value.
https://preview.redd.it/i1t6sm07gnq51.png?width=1170&format=png&auto=webp&s=a09251dad68654267b8fd36794a96b02966beb5c
Current Token Details: Total mined: 1 715 790 736 BFG Total staked: 1 452 257 495 BFG Burned: 180 167 821 BFG

BetFury Events

Every day there are important events at BetFury and we want to share all these events and news with you. Any updates or creation of new games, awarding prizes to the winners of competitions - everything is done with love for you, Betfurians.

Crash Space War

You have been waiting for a long time for the launch of the updated Crash. And this happened! The bravest 50 Jedi shared 0.5 BTC in the Crash Space War.
https://preview.redd.it/m87twfnbgnq51.png?width=1170&format=png&auto=webp&s=b554542d55a98a1535b1bf1280a5b210fcf19eaa

BetFury Battles

This is a new format of events with thrills and gives indecently large rewards. Taste the victory of the real fight in Battles. New feelings, new emotions and most importantly new great victories are waiting for you. The first Battle took place at KENO for 24 hours with the prize pool of 0.1 BTC (~$1000) for 50 skilled players. Follow our social networks not to miss further Battles.
https://preview.redd.it/bq5alcfdgnq51.png?width=1170&format=png&auto=webp&s=15f17ce72cad803b66629ebfe51da4eb9b43fa19

New Gaming Provider and many new cool Slots

Provider MrSlotty has come with gifts for you. He brought a bag full of 50 Slots. Place bets and win the biggest winnings in any currency: BTC, TRX, USDT, BTT.
https://preview.redd.it/2ze010aggnq51.png?width=1170&format=png&auto=webp&s=71425aada1ca8b0bc70c62104d58c598def976ee
The Kings of Success have replenished their chests with 40 new slots and more than 30 Table games. Catch your luck in the best games from: Platipus, Spinomenal, Playson, ReelNRG, Endorphina, Booongo, Tom Horn, Fugaso, GameArt, Habanero.
https://preview.redd.it/j8y2b9zignq51.png?width=1170&format=png&auto=webp&s=c9706687f7e88a581d06cf7571dbb7facb058e45

BitcoinTalk page updated

Now you can chat, leave reviews and learn many news about BetFury on our page in BitcoinTalk. Welcome to the updated page with new features. Soon there will be the Grand Bounty campaign with big awards.
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BetFury BOXes

Boxes are sold like hotcakes. This month 3 Boxes were sold out: Ruby Box — Price: 0.001BTC | Monthly Rate: 15% Emerald Box — Price: 0.01BTC | Monthly Rate: 11% Sapphire Box — Price: 0.05BTC | Monthly Rate: 12%
1000 Key Boxes were sold out at the price of 0.0001 BTC with Monthly Rate - 50%. All players who bought the Key Box have a chance to get the last part of the key to the wallet with 0.5 BTC. Bitcoins are still in the wallet. Watch the cartoon and find all the tips where the parts of the private key. Withdraw cash from the Key Box and catch a pop-up with the last bit of the private key to the Bitcoin wallet. Collect all parts of the key and open the wallet first. Hurry up! The search becomes more intense!
https://preview.redd.it/lhoiggeognq51.png?width=1280&format=png&auto=webp&s=9b0092ce84cf8c443a2c63908e7b6dd74d1a7494
However, now you have the opportunity to buy a new Amber Box at a price of 0.005 BTC with Monthly Rate - 10%.
https://preview.redd.it/eakx2buqgnq51.png?width=1280&format=png&auto=webp&s=25584c51454cea51999c54e29703fdfa4fce41c3

Oktoberfest moved to BetFury

The loudest autumn event is now celebrated at BetFury. Brewers pour beer from all slots. You can still join the festival and spin slots for mega prizes. https://steemit.com/betfury/@betfury-steem/oktoberfest-will-be-here-on-betfury
https://preview.redd.it/qyu1c9jugnq51.png?width=1170&format=png&auto=webp&s=b3f20ce5a94a8c63df3864938d4f20e92fc82ab2

ReelNRG tournament

The Knights spun slots from ReelNRG in a big tournament. The €1000 prize was shared between 20 knights. The players competed in all stages and only the bravest reached the final.
https://preview.redd.it/ifg13p0xgnq51.png?width=1170&format=png&auto=webp&s=6a030cd148103baf88946a3a7b22ae05aafadae6

Rewards

Betfurians filled their pockets with prizes from Weekly Events, Giveaways & Big Wins.
  • Chat Success took place five times this month, which means that 250 winners received prizes. Total amount = 25 000 TRX.
  • Twitter Success rewarded players twice - 200 lucky people received 40 mBTC in total.
  • Slots Race for 777 mBTC has gained momentum four times to reward riders. 200 fastest winners reached the finish line. Total amount of monthly payouts ~3.1 BTC Roll up! A new circle has already started.
  • There are more and more Big Winners and Big Wins are proof of that. The total amount of Big Wins this month - $418 540
The September cloud of Giveaway scattered various awards. Fury held 6 Giveaways! The largest took place on Instagram in honor of 1000 Followers. Join also and don't miss the Giveaway.
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Live Streams

Nothing shows the authenticity of a real game like Live Streams. Big wins live, test drive on new slots, visits to real casinos and a lot more can be seen in a Live Stream. Three cool streamers @badj0ker, @TronWarrior420 & @CEOofNEGATIVITY showed the best games and won in front of the audience during 13 broadcasts.

Community

Follow all events and updates of the platform on social media pages. Be the first one to know all the news. Join the big BetFury family and have fun to the fullest. Telegram Channel - 10.5K Telegram Chat - 26K Twitter - 44K Instagram - 1.2K

Planned Updates

  • New In-house game
  • New slots
  • New Boxes
  • More currencies
  • Huge Bounty

Summary

The month was full of hot news. Big Wins and many awards filled you with emotions. Dividend pools have risen and give sensational payouts. The BetFury team with Commander Fury is ready for new accomplishments for you. So play, enjoy the wins and follow the enchanting novelties. You will definitely like everything!
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Link to the Website: https://betfury.io Link to the Telegram: http://t.me/betfury Link to the Twitter: https://twitter.com/betfury_io Link to the Telegram Channel: https://t.me/betfuryofficialchannel Link to the Steemit: https://steemit.com/@betfury-steem Link to Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/BetFury.io/ Link to Instagram: https://instagram.com/betfury.io Link to Reddit: https://www.reddit.com/useBetFury_io
submitted by BetFury_io to u/BetFury_io [link] [comments]

What r/investing can learn from the book, Psychology of Money

My favorite author, Morgan Housel, released his new book, The Psychology of Money, last week. In the book, Housel discussed many interesting psychological phenomenon, through the lens of finance. As I flipped through the pages, I started to realize so much of what's happening in investing are examples of what's discussed in the book.
No One's Crazy
The book begins with how your personal experiences with money make up maybe 0.000000001% of what's happened in the world, but maybe 80% of how you think the world works.
For example, if you were born in 1970, the S&P 500 increased almost 10-fold, adjusted for inflation, during your teens and 20s. That's an amazing return. If you were born in 1950, the market went literally nowhere in your teens and 20s adjusted for inflation. Two groups of people, separated by chance of their birth year, go through life with a completely different view on how the stock market works.
Takeaways for investing:
When you read other posts and comments about what stocks to buy, when to sell, what's likely to happen next, what's the best asset allocation, etc., remember that is just a single person's point of view. That person may be from a different generation, earns different incomes, upholds different values, keeps different jobs, and has different degrees of luck.
And remember, don't be mean to others. A view about money that one group of people thinks is outrageous can make perfect sense to another.
Luck & Risk
The next chapter discusses the big role luck and risk plays in someone's life. Luck and risk are two sides of the same coin.
Examples from the book: Countless fortunes (and mistakes) owe their outcomes to leverage. The best (and worst) managers drive their employees as hard as they can. "The customers are always right" and "customers don't know what they want" are both accepted business wisdom. The line between "inspiringly bold" and "foolishly reckless" can be a millimeter thick and only visible with hindsight. Risk and luck are doppelgängers.
Takeaways for investing:
Be careful who you praise and admire. That commenter who bought $SHOP at $30 may look like a genius on the outside, but they may just be lucky and cannot repeat it again.
Be careful who you look down upon and wish to avoid becoming. That poster who put a bull argument for Luckin Coffee may look like a fool, but they made the best decision based on the information they had at a time. They took a risk and got unlucky.
Therefore, focus less on specific individuals and case studies and more on broad patterns.
Furthermore, when things are going extremely well, realize it's not as good as you think -- like the stock market right now.
On the other hand, we should forgive ourselves and leave room for understanding when judging failures -- like the stock market in March.
Never Enough
The hardest financial skill is getting the goalpost to stop moving. It gets dangerous when the taste of having more -- more money, more power, more prestige -- increases ambition faster than satisfaction.
Social comparison is the problem here. A rookie baseball players who earns $500k a year envies Mike Trout who has a 12-year, $430 million contract envies a hedge fund manager who makes $340 million a year envies Warren Buffett who had a $3.5 billion increase in fortune in 2018.
There are many things never worth risking, no matter the potential gain. Reputation is invaluable. Freedom and independence are invaluable. Friends and family are invaluable. Being loved by those who you want to love you is invaluable. Happiness is invaluable. And your best shot at keeping these things is knowing when it's time to stop taking risks that might harm them. Knowing when you have enough.
Takeaways for investing:
When you make a big gain, it's totally okay to take profit, as long as you keep your ambition down and acknowledge the possibility that it may go higher. If that happens, no need to play the would've should've could've game, because it very well might've gone the other way.
When you see someone who got 20x return on Amazon or bet big into Ethereum in 2016, remember they may envy the pre-IPO employees at Amazon or the genius who held Bitcoin since 2010.
At the end of the day, do not risk more than what's comfortable in your life for the sake of making huge amount of money, because even if you do make it, you may not find it worth it.
Tails, You Win
Skipping a few chapters to talk about the prominence of tail events.
At the Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting in 2013 Warren Buffet said he's owned 400 to 500 stocks during his life and made most of his money on 10 of them. Charlie Munger followed up: "If you remove just a few of Berkshire's top investments, its long-term track record is pretty average."
In 2018, Amazon drove 6% of the S&P 500's returns. And Amazon's growth is almost entirely due to Prime and Amazon Web Services, which itself are tail events in a company that has experimented with hundreds of products, from the Fire Phone to travel agencies.
Apple was responsible for almost 7% of the index's returns in 2018. And it is driven overwhelmingly by the iPhone, which in the world of tech products is as tail--y as tails get.
And who's working at these companies? Google's hiring acceptance rate if 0.2%. Facebook's is 0.1%. Apple's is about 2%. So the people working on these tail projects that drive tail returns have tail careers.
Takeaways for investing:
When we pay special attention to a role model's successes we overlook that their gains came from a small percent of their actions. That makes our own failures, losses, and setbacks feel like we're doing something wrong.
When you accept that tails drive everything is business, investing and finance you will realize that it's normal for lots of things to go wrong, break, fail and fall. If you are a good stock picker you'll be right maybe half the time. If you're a good business leader maybe half of your product and strategy ideas will work. If you're a good investor most years will be just OK, and plenty will be bad. If you're a good worker you'll find the right company in the right field after several attempts and trials. And that's if you're good.
Freedom
The highest form of wealth is the ability to wake up every morning and say "I can do whatever I want today." The ability to do what you want, when you want, with who you want, for as long as you want, is priceless. It is the highest dividend money pays.
Research has shown having a strong sense of controlling one's life is a more dependable predictor of positive feelings of wellbeing than any of the objective conditions of life we have considered.
People like to feel like they're in control -- in the drivers' seat. When we try to get them to do something, they feel disempowered. Rather than feeling like they made the choice, they feel like we made it for them. So they say no or do something else, even when they might have originally been happy to go along.
Takeaways for investing:
If your job is a thought-based and decision job, your tool is your head, which never leaves you. You might be thinking about your project during your commute, as you're making dinner, while you put your kids to sleep, and when you wake up stressed at three in the morning. You might be on the clock for fewer hours than you would in 1050. But it feels like you're working 24/7.
If this feels like you, and you do not like it, it is totally fine to switch to a job that pays less but gives you more freedom and independence, because freedom and independence are ultimate form of wealth.
---
I'm only half way into the book, but I can tell this will be one of the best finance book of 2020. If you guys find this useful, happy to come back next week with more insights once I've gotten to the end.
submitted by uDontLifeForBeSad to investing [link] [comments]

[Geek Time Raffle and Special Offers] Custom Made Fifty Fathoms and Coupons, You Will Win It !

[Geek Time Raffle and Special Offers] Custom Made Fifty Fathoms and Coupons, You Will Win It !
Dear reptime members,
Hello, I'm Eric from geektime.
We have only been engaged in this industry for a few years. Our international business has just started in the last month, and it is only 24 days before we join reptime. We don't understand many things, but we are studying very hard.
At first, we didn't use bitcoin and transferwise to receive payment, but reptime members were very happy to teach me how to operate and what to pay attention to. What's more interesting is that we are not very clear about many English professional terms, and reptime members are also careful to explain them to me.
I am very happy to meet many friends here, and I am so sorry for the last unsuccessful special offer. However, almost all members understand and support us, and we are very grateful. We hope to make more contributions to the community and members, so today I bring you Raffles and new special offers.
Raffle
https://preview.redd.it/rwlh97z31fd51.png?width=2400&format=png&auto=webp&s=35066f65081dfb407aaa1b7de35463039bebcb00
Custom made Blancpain fitfy fathoms
[Here is my review video of the custom fifty fathoms](https://www.reddit.com/RepTime/comments/hyoamj/geek_time_video_review_brief_fifty_fathoms/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share)
COUPONS:
70$
50$
30$
20$
The 5 giveaway prizes will be selected randomly from comments in this thread after two weeks from posting this thread.
STEPS FOR GIVEAWAY
Upvote this post.
Leave a comment here.
To be fair, the Moderators of reptime u/MajorWilliams will select the winners randomly and announce them on August 11.
I will publish a new post to announce the winning list and send private messages to the winners.
WHO IS QUALIFIED FOR THIS GIVEAWAY
  1. Users who have posted in reptime.
  2. Over 10 Karma is required.
  3. User account is over 40 days.
*If the winner has already purchased the watch, we will refund all the money and give an extra $30 coupon.
Special offer
This time, we have had a very full communication with the manufacturer. There will be no accident this time. This custom made fifth fathoms, only a few TDs are selling it, and the price is about 408 dollars. Our price is the same.
However, the special price is only 288 dollars, but due to limited capacity, we can only provide 20 of them. We tried our best to reach the price, hoping to give you enough surprise! Friends can still pay after QC, you can order through the link below.
https://geektime.cc/product/fifty-fathoms-ss-black-custom-made-black-dial-on-sail-canvas-strap-a2836/
* If you see the price is $408, don't worry, it will show you the correct price when you check out
Thank you again, good luck!
Eric
Geek Time
Website: www.geektime.cc
WhatsApp: +86 17503034223
Mail: [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected])
Wechat: geektimewatch
submitted by geektimewatch to RepTime [link] [comments]

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